The Importance of the Montreal Protocol in Mitigating the Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones ...
The impact of the Montreal Protocol on the potential intensity of tropical cyclones over the next 50 years is investigated with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving atmospheric model, coupled to land, ocean, and sea ice components, with int...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
Columbia University
2016
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.7916/d81836jw https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D81836JW |
| Summary: | The impact of the Montreal Protocol on the potential intensity of tropical cyclones over the next 50 years is investigated with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving atmospheric model, coupled to land, ocean, and sea ice components, with interactive stratospheric chemistry. An ensemble of WACCM runs from 2006 to 2065 forced with a standard future scenario is compared to a second ensemble in which ozone-depleting substances (ODS) are not regulated (the so-called World Avoided). It is found that by the year 2065, changes in the potential intensity of tropical cyclones in the World Avoided are nearly 3 times as large as for the standard scenario. The Montreal Protocol thus provides a strong mitigation of the adverse effects of intensifying tropical cyclones. The relative importance of warmer sea surface temperatures (ozone-depleting substances are important greenhouse gases) and cooler lower-stratospheric temperatures (accompanying the massive ... |
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