Explications of a Changing Climate ...
Climate models encode our collective knowledge about the climate system and are among the best tools available for estimating past and future climate change. However, in response to greenhouse gas forcing, climate models exhibit a large intermodel spread in various aspects of the climate system, add...
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| Format: | Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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California Institute of Technology
2025
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| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.7907/afb5-ns06 https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechTHESIS:06262024-011209069 |
| Summary: | Climate models encode our collective knowledge about the climate system and are among the best tools available for estimating past and future climate change. However, in response to greenhouse gas forcing, climate models exhibit a large intermodel spread in various aspects of the climate system, adding considerable uncertainty to future climate projections. This dissertation introduces a series of conceptual models and frameworks to understand the behavior of climate models under greenhouse gas forcing and, consequently, Earth's changing climate. A simple statistical model is used to explain and constrain the intermodel spread in Arctic sea ice projections across climate models. The probability of encountering seasonally ice-free conditions in the twenty-first century is also explored by systematically constraining components of the statistical model with observations. A conceptual framework is introduced to understand controls on the strength and structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation ... |
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