The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events ...
This study provides the first climatological assessment of the impact of recurving North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on downstream precipitation extremes. The response is evaluated based on time-lagged composites for 146 recurving TCs between 1979 and 2013 and quantified by the area affected by...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
American Meteorological Society
2019
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.7892/boris.130379 https://boris.unibe.ch/130379/ |
| Summary: | This study provides the first climatological assessment of the impact of recurving North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on downstream precipitation extremes. The response is evaluated based on time-lagged composites for 146 recurving TCs between 1979 and 2013 and quantified by the area affected by precipitation extremes (PEA) in a domain shifted relative to the TC–jet interaction location, which often encompasses major parts of Europe. The statistical significance of the PEA response to the TCs is determined using a novel bootstrapping technique based on flow analogs. A statistically significant increase in PEA is found between lags +42 and +90 h after the TC–jet interaction, with a doubling of the PEA compared to analog cases without recurving TCs. A K-means clustering applied to the natural logarithm of potential vorticity fields [ln(PV)] around the TC–jet interaction points reveals four main flow configurations of North Atlantic TC–jet interactions. Two main mechanisms by which recurving TCs can foster ... |
|---|