Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway
Abstract Background Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence...
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ftdatacite:10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3881455.v1 2023-05-15T17:43:24+02:00 Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway H. Kileng L. Bernfort T. Gutteberg O.S. Moen M.G. Kristiansen E.J. Paulssen L.K. Berg J. Florholmen R. Goll 2017 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3881455.v1 https://figshare.com/collections/Future_complications_of_chronic_hepatitis_C_in_a_low-risk_area_projections_from_the_hepatitis_c_study_in_Northern_Norway/3881455/1 unknown Figshare https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3881455 CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 CC-BY Medicine Biotechnology 39999 Chemical Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Chemical sciences Cancer 110309 Infectious Diseases FOS Health sciences 60506 Virology FOS Biological sciences Computational Biology Collection article 2017 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3881455.v1 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0 https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3881455 2021-11-05T12:55:41Z Abstract Background Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence in the general population (0.24%). Despite this, late complications of HCV infection are increasing. Our object was to estimate the future prevalence and complications of chronic HCV infection in the period 2013â 2050 in a low-risk area. Methods We have entered available data into a prognostic Markov model to project future complications to HCV infection. Results The model extrapolates the prevalence in the present cohort of HCV-infected individuals, and assumes a stable low incidence in the projection period. We predict an almost three-fold increase in the incidence of cirrhosis (68 per 100,000), of decompensated cirrhosis (21 per 100,000) and of hepatocellular carcinoma (4 per 100,000) by 2050, as well as a six-fold increase in the cumulated number of deaths from HCV-related liver disease (170 per 100,000 inhabitants). All estimates are made assuming an unchanged treatment coverage of approximately 15%. The estimated numbers can be reduced by approximately 50% for cirrhosis, and by approximately one third for the other endpoints if treatment coverage is raised to 50%. Conclusion These projections from a low-prevalence area indicate a substantial rise in HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the coming years. The global HCV epidemic is of great concern and increased treatment coverage is necessary to reduce the burden of the disease. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northern Norway DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Norway |
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topic |
Medicine Biotechnology 39999 Chemical Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Chemical sciences Cancer 110309 Infectious Diseases FOS Health sciences 60506 Virology FOS Biological sciences Computational Biology |
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Medicine Biotechnology 39999 Chemical Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Chemical sciences Cancer 110309 Infectious Diseases FOS Health sciences 60506 Virology FOS Biological sciences Computational Biology H. Kileng L. Bernfort T. Gutteberg O.S. Moen M.G. Kristiansen E.J. Paulssen L.K. Berg J. Florholmen R. Goll Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway |
topic_facet |
Medicine Biotechnology 39999 Chemical Sciences not elsewhere classified FOS Chemical sciences Cancer 110309 Infectious Diseases FOS Health sciences 60506 Virology FOS Biological sciences Computational Biology |
description |
Abstract Background Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence in the general population (0.24%). Despite this, late complications of HCV infection are increasing. Our object was to estimate the future prevalence and complications of chronic HCV infection in the period 2013â 2050 in a low-risk area. Methods We have entered available data into a prognostic Markov model to project future complications to HCV infection. Results The model extrapolates the prevalence in the present cohort of HCV-infected individuals, and assumes a stable low incidence in the projection period. We predict an almost three-fold increase in the incidence of cirrhosis (68 per 100,000), of decompensated cirrhosis (21 per 100,000) and of hepatocellular carcinoma (4 per 100,000) by 2050, as well as a six-fold increase in the cumulated number of deaths from HCV-related liver disease (170 per 100,000 inhabitants). All estimates are made assuming an unchanged treatment coverage of approximately 15%. The estimated numbers can be reduced by approximately 50% for cirrhosis, and by approximately one third for the other endpoints if treatment coverage is raised to 50%. Conclusion These projections from a low-prevalence area indicate a substantial rise in HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the coming years. The global HCV epidemic is of great concern and increased treatment coverage is necessary to reduce the burden of the disease. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
H. Kileng L. Bernfort T. Gutteberg O.S. Moen M.G. Kristiansen E.J. Paulssen L.K. Berg J. Florholmen R. Goll |
author_facet |
H. Kileng L. Bernfort T. Gutteberg O.S. Moen M.G. Kristiansen E.J. Paulssen L.K. Berg J. Florholmen R. Goll |
author_sort |
H. Kileng |
title |
Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway |
title_short |
Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway |
title_full |
Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway |
title_fullStr |
Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway |
title_sort |
future complications of chronic hepatitis c in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in northern norway |
publisher |
Figshare |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3881455.v1 https://figshare.com/collections/Future_complications_of_chronic_hepatitis_C_in_a_low-risk_area_projections_from_the_hepatitis_c_study_in_Northern_Norway/3881455/1 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Northern Norway |
genre_facet |
Northern Norway |
op_relation |
https://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0 https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3881455 |
op_rights |
CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3881455.v1 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2722-0 https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3881455 |
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1766145460949483520 |