Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway
Abstract Background Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | unknown |
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Figshare
2017
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Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.3881455.v1 https://figshare.com/collections/Future_complications_of_chronic_hepatitis_C_in_a_low-risk_area_projections_from_the_hepatitis_c_study_in_Northern_Norway/3881455/1 |
Summary: | Abstract Background Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence in the general population (0.24%). Despite this, late complications of HCV infection are increasing. Our object was to estimate the future prevalence and complications of chronic HCV infection in the period 2013รข 2050 in a low-risk area. Methods We have entered available data into a prognostic Markov model to project future complications to HCV infection. Results The model extrapolates the prevalence in the present cohort of HCV-infected individuals, and assumes a stable low incidence in the projection period. We predict an almost three-fold increase in the incidence of cirrhosis (68 per 100,000), of decompensated cirrhosis (21 per 100,000) and of hepatocellular carcinoma (4 per 100,000) by 2050, as well as a six-fold increase in the cumulated number of deaths from HCV-related liver disease (170 per 100,000 inhabitants). All estimates are made assuming an unchanged treatment coverage of approximately 15%. The estimated numbers can be reduced by approximately 50% for cirrhosis, and by approximately one third for the other endpoints if treatment coverage is raised to 50%. Conclusion These projections from a low-prevalence area indicate a substantial rise in HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the coming years. The global HCV epidemic is of great concern and increased treatment coverage is necessary to reduce the burden of the disease. |
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