Fractional change in near-surface permafrost extent (poleward of 45° N and in a nonglacier area) with respect to 2012 (around 1.02 × 10 13 m 2 ) under various climate projections ...

• Main Authors: Gao, Xiang, Adam Schlosser, C, Sokolov, Andrei, Anthony, Katey Walter, Zhuang, Qianlai, Kicklighter, David
• Format: Still Image
• Language: unknown
• Published: IOP Publishing 2013
• Subjects: Other environmental sciences not elsewhere classified; permafrost
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1011721.v1; https://iop.figshare.com/articles/figure/_Fractional_change_in_near_surface_permafrost_extent_poleward_of_45_N_and_in_a_nonglacier_area_with_/1011721/1

Figure 1. Fractional change in near-surface permafrost extent (poleward of 45° N and in a nonglacier area) with respect to 2012 (around 1.02 × 10 13 m 2 ) under various climate projections. Thick lines represent the use of climatological geographic patterns in near-surface meteorology throughout the 21st century. Light thin lines represent the inclusion of additional geographic pattern shifts from the IPCC AR4 climate-model projections. The figure legend is detailed in table 1. Abstract Climate change and permafrost thaw have been suggested to increase high latitude methane emissions that could potentially represent a strong feedback to the climate system. Using an integrated earth-system model framework, we examine the degradation of near-surface permafrost, temporal dynamics of inundation (lakes and wetlands) induced by hydro-climatic change, subsequent methane emission, and potential climate feedback. We find that increases in atmospheric CH 4 and its radiative forcing, which result from the thawed, ...