Predictability study of the sudden shift in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport and its application to targeted observation ...
<!--!introduction!--> Due to high nonlinearity, the accurate prediction of the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) transport is still challenging. Using an eddy-permitting ocean model and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach, the predictability related to the ACC transport s...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Conference Object |
| Language: | unknown |
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GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
2023
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| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-1366 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017236 |
| Summary: | <!--!introduction!--> Due to high nonlinearity, the accurate prediction of the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) transport is still challenging. Using an eddy-permitting ocean model and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach, the predictability related to the ACC transport sudden shift through the Drake Passage (DP) is investigated by exploring the optimal precursor (OPR) and the optimally growing initial error (OGIE). The sudden shift in ACC transport is defined as a fluctuation exceeding two standard deviations (~16 Sv; 1 Sv = 10 6 m 3 s –1 ) within 30 days. The OPRs and OGIEs for four different cases exhibit similar spatial patterns and primarily exist in the middle DP (58°S–62°S, 72°W–64°W) at the depth of 1000–3000 m. It implies that vigorous ACC variations are sensitive to the initial perturbations there. Moreover, the OPRs and OGIEs both undergo significant evolutions and trigger anomalous dipolar eddy-like circulations, although the signals evolving from the OPRs are ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ... |
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