Will storm track changes impact UK storm surges? ...
<!--!introduction!--> We present results of a storm surge simulation driven by the atmosphere of a climate model in which a catastrophic shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is induced. Projections of change in the North Atlantic storm tracks in a warming world ar...
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | unknown |
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GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-0488 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5015928 |
| Summary: | <!--!introduction!--> We present results of a storm surge simulation driven by the atmosphere of a climate model in which a catastrophic shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is induced. Projections of change in the North Atlantic storm tracks in a warming world are highly uncertain and climate models show various responses. Atmospheric storms drive storm surges which are a major component of UK coastal flooding hazard, so it is important to ask how this process may be affected by climate change — not only what change is probable, but also what is possible? Our simulation is a contribution to answering that question. We also consider an ensemble simulation with a high-climate-sensitivity model under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5). We find significant simulated increases for some sites: up to about 0.4 metres increase (approximately 25%) in the expected annual maximum. In both the AMOC-collapse and the ensemble simulation, the largest projected increases ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ... |
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