Understanding and assessing seasonal forecast skill of severe winter windstorm over Europe with large-scale patterns and dynamical factors ...
<!--!introduction!--> Severe winter windstorms belong to the most damaging extreme events over Europe with damages costing over several millions of EUR. Hence, the understanding and skilful predictions would be of great value. On the other hand, the seasonal time scale is not only of interest...
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| Format: | Conference Object |
| Language: | unknown |
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GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
2023
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| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.57757/iugg23-0077 https://gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_5017015 |
| Summary: | <!--!introduction!--> Severe winter windstorms belong to the most damaging extreme events over Europe with damages costing over several millions of EUR. Hence, the understanding and skilful predictions would be of great value. On the other hand, the seasonal time scale is not only of interest for windstorm studies but is gaining more and more interest in general. This study investigates extreme event predictions on the seasonal time scale. Therefore, it is using the seasonal forecast model GloSea5, from the UK Met Office, validated with ECMWF ERA5 reanalyses. Windstorms are tracked with an impact-focused algorithm for 23 winter seasons, DJF, 1993-2015. The windstorm frequency shows skilful predictions over the British Isles and southern Scandinavia while the forecast skill of intensity depends on the measure used. An accumulated intensity of the season shows skilful areas downstream of the North Atlantic stormtrack. The significant spatial area for a normalised intensity decreases slightly, but still ... : The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023) ... |
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