Integrated population model reveals human and environment driven changes in Baltic ringed seal (Pusa hispida botnica) demography and behavior ...
Integrated population models (IPMs) are a promising approach to test ecological theories and assess wildlife populations in dynamic and uncertain conditions. By combining multiple data sources into a single, unified model, they enable the parametrization of versatile, mechanistic models that can pre...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
arXiv
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2408.08069 https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.08069 |
| Summary: | Integrated population models (IPMs) are a promising approach to test ecological theories and assess wildlife populations in dynamic and uncertain conditions. By combining multiple data sources into a single, unified model, they enable the parametrization of versatile, mechanistic models that can predict population dynamics in novel circumstances. Here, we present a Bayesian IPM for the ringed seal (Pusa hispida botnica) population inhabiting the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea. Despite the availability of long-term monitoring data, traditional assessment methods have faltered due to dynamic environmental conditions, varying reproductive rates, and the recently re-introduced hunting, thus limiting the quality of information available to managers. We fit our model to census and various demographic, reproductive and harvest data from 1988 to 2023 to provide a comprehensive assessment of past population trends, and predict population response to alternative hunting scenarios. We estimated that 20,000 to 36,000 ... |
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