Alternative climatic steady states for the Permian-Triassic paleogeography ...
Due to spatial scarcity and uncertainties in sediment data, initial and boundary conditions in deep-time climate simulations are not well constrained. On the other hand, the climate is a nonlinear system with a multitude of feedback mechanisms that compete and balance differently depending on the in...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Report |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
arXiv
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2407.08363 https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.08363 |
| Summary: | Due to spatial scarcity and uncertainties in sediment data, initial and boundary conditions in deep-time climate simulations are not well constrained. On the other hand, the climate is a nonlinear system with a multitude of feedback mechanisms that compete and balance differently depending on the initial and boundary conditions. This opens up the possibility to obtain multiple steady states under the same forcing in numerical experiments. Here, we use the MIT general circulation model with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-thermodynamic sea ice-land configuration to explore the existence of such alternative steady states around the Permian-Triassic Boundary (PTB). We construct the corresponding bifurcation diagram, taking into account processes on a timescale of thousands of years, in order to identify the stability range of the steady states and tipping points as the atmospheric CO$_2$ content is varied. We find three alternative steady states with a difference in global mean surface air temperature of about 10 ... : 26 pages, 22 figures, submitted ... |
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