Uncertainty-enabled machine learning for emulation of regional sea-level change caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet ...

• Main Authors: Yoo, Myungsoo, Gopalan, Giri, Hoffman, Matthew J., Coulson, Sophie, Han, Holly Kyeore, Wikle, Christopher K., Hillebrand, Trevor
• Format: Report
• Language: unknown
• Published: arXiv 2024
• Subjects: Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics physics.ao-ph; Machine Learning cs.LG; Machine Learning stat.ML; FOS Physical sciences; FOS Computer and information sciences; Antarc*; Antarctic; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2406.17729; https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.17729

Projecting sea-level change in various climate-change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice mass change, which requires high computational cost and time. Here we build neural-network emulators of sea-level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are based on datasets produced using a numerical solver for the static sea-level equation and published ISMIP6-2100 ice-sheet model simulations referenced in the IPCC AR6 report. We show that the neural-network emulators have an accuracy that is competitive with baseline machine learning emulators. In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well-calibrated prediction intervals for simulated sea-level change via a linear regression postprocessing technique that uses (nonlinear) machine learning model outputs, a technique that has previously been applied to ...