Anticipation of Oligocene's climate heartbeat by simplified eigenvalue estimation ...
The Eocene-Oligocene transition marks a watershed point of earth's climate history. The climate shifts from a greenhouse state to an icehouse state in which Antarctica glaciated for the first time and periodic dynamics arise which are still relevant for our current climate. We analyse a $CaCO_3...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | unknown |
| Published: |
arXiv
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2309.14179 https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.14179 |
| Summary: | The Eocene-Oligocene transition marks a watershed point of earth's climate history. The climate shifts from a greenhouse state to an icehouse state in which Antarctica glaciated for the first time and periodic dynamics arise which are still relevant for our current climate. We analyse a $CaCO_3$ concentration time series which covers the Eocene-Oligocene transition and which is obtained from a Pacific sediment core at site DSDP1218. Therefore, we introduce a simplified autoregression-based variant of the dominant eigenvalue (DEV) estimation procedure. The DEV works as leading indicator of bifurcation-induced transitions and enables us to identify the bifurcation type. We confirm its reliability in a methodological study and demonstrate the crucial importance of proper detrending to obtain unbiased results. As a remark, we discuss also possible pathways to estimate the stability of limit cycles based on the DEV and the alternative drift slope as a proof of principle. Finally, we present the DEV analysis ... : 14 pages, 6 figures. Appendix included with 14 pages, 13 figures and 2 tables. Total pages: 31. Data and code available online ... |
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