Non-linear, bivariate stochastic modelling of power-grid frequency applied to islands ...

• Main Authors: Oberhofer, Ulrich, Gorjão, Leonardo Rydin, Yalcin, G. Cigdem, Kamps, Oliver, Hagenmeyer, Veit, Schäfer, Benjamin
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: arXiv 2023
• Subjects: Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability physics.data-an; Systems and Control eess.SY; Applications stat.AP; FOS Physical sciences; FOS Electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering; FOS Computer and information sciences; Iceland
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2301.04551; https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.04551

Mitigating climate change requires a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy. As a result, power generation becomes more volatile and options for microgrids and islanded power-grid operation are being broadly discussed. Therefore, studying the power grids of physical islands, as a model for islanded microgrids, is of particular interest when it comes to enhancing our understanding of power-grid stability. In the present paper, we investigate the statistical properties of the power-grid frequency of three island systems: Iceland, Ireland, and the Balearic Islands. We utilise a Fokker-Planck approach to construct stochastic differential equations that describe market activities, control, and noise acting on power-grid dynamics. Using the obtained parameters we create synthetic time series of the frequency dynamics. Our main contribution is to propose two extensions of stochastic power-grid frequency models and showcase the applicability of these new models to non-Gaussian statistics, as ...