A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting

We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density foreca...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Diebold, Francis X., Gobel, Maximilian
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: arXiv 2021
Subjects:
Econometrics econ.EM
Applications stat.AP
FOS Economics and business
FOS Computer and information sciences
Arctic
Sea ice
Online Access:https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2101.10359
https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.10359
id ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.2101.10359
record_format openpolar
spelling ftdatacite:10.48550/arxiv.2101.10359 2023-05-15T14:42:43+02:00 A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting Diebold, Francis X. Gobel, Maximilian 2021 https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2101.10359 https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.10359 unknown arXiv arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ Econometrics econ.EM Applications stat.AP FOS Economics and business FOS Computer and information sciences Article CreativeWork article Preprint 2021 ftdatacite https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2101.10359 2022-03-10T15:19:22Z We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the end of September approaches. Comparison to the BPM may prove useful for evaluating and selecting among various more sophisticated dynamical sea ice models, which are widely used to quantify the likely future evolution of Arctic conditions and their two-way interaction with economic activity. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology) Arctic
institution Open Polar
collection DataCite Metadata Store (German National Library of Science and Technology)
op_collection_id ftdatacite
language unknown
topic Econometrics econ.EM
Applications stat.AP
FOS Economics and business
FOS Computer and information sciences
spellingShingle Econometrics econ.EM
Applications stat.AP
FOS Economics and business
FOS Computer and information sciences
Diebold, Francis X.
Gobel, Maximilian
A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting
topic_facet Econometrics econ.EM
Applications stat.AP
FOS Economics and business
FOS Computer and information sciences
description We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the end of September approaches. Comparison to the BPM may prove useful for evaluating and selecting among various more sophisticated dynamical sea ice models, which are widely used to quantify the likely future evolution of Arctic conditions and their two-way interaction with economic activity.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Diebold, Francis X.
Gobel, Maximilian
author_facet Diebold, Francis X.
Gobel, Maximilian
author_sort Diebold, Francis X.
title A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting
title_short A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting
title_full A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting
title_fullStr A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting
title_full_unstemmed A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting
title_sort benchmark model for fixed-target arctic sea ice forecasting
publisher arXiv
publishDate 2021
url https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2101.10359
https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.10359
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
Sea ice
genre_facet Arctic
Sea ice
op_rights arXiv.org perpetual, non-exclusive license
http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
op_doi https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2101.10359
_version_ 1766314449132584960

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