A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting

We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density foreca...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Diebold, Francis X., Gobel, Maximilian
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:unknown
Published: arXiv 2021
Subjects:
Econometrics econ.EM
Applications stat.AP
FOS Economics and business
FOS Computer and information sciences
Arctic
Sea ice
Online Access:https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2101.10359
https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.10359
Description
Summary:We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the end of September approaches. Comparison to the BPM may prove useful for evaluating and selecting among various more sophisticated dynamical sea ice models, which are widely used to quantify the likely future evolution of Arctic conditions and their two-way interaction with economic activity.

Similar Items