Earth System Pathways to Extreme Events in Observations and GEOS Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Forecasts: A Multi-Scale Machine Learning Approach ...
Proposal Summary The probability of extreme cold events over North America during boreal winter is strongly affected by the stratospheric circulation via several mechanisms: (i) Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, characterized by abrupt deceleration and reversal of the zonal wind in the stratosphere due...
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
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DMPTool
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.48321/d1dee803a1 https://dmphub.uc3prd.cdlib.net/dmps/10.48321/D1DEE803A1 |
| Summary: | Proposal Summary The probability of extreme cold events over North America during boreal winter is strongly affected by the stratospheric circulation via several mechanisms: (i) Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, characterized by abrupt deceleration and reversal of the zonal wind in the stratosphere due to absorption of upward propagating tropospheric Rossby waves, which often lead to downward propagation of negative zonal wind anomalies and anomalous surface cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern seaboard of the US. (ii) The configuration of the stratospheric circulation with reflecting surfaces and high-latitude waveguides causes the reflection of upward propagating planetary Rossby waves over the North Pacific, leading to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation and extreme North American cooling. The stratospheric circulation variability itself is in part forced by upward propagating tropospheric planetary waves which are responsive to the evolution of tropical heating, and particularly ... |
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