Inferring within‐flock transmission dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 virus in France, 2020 ...

Following the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N8) in France in early December 2020, we used duck mortality data from the index farm to investigate within-flock transmission dynamics. A stochastic epidemic model was fitted to the daily mortality data and model parameters were estima...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Vergne, Timothée, Gubbins, Simon, Guinat, Claire, Bauzile, Billy, Delpont, Mattias, Chakraborty, Debapriyo, Gruson, Hugo, Roche, Benjamin, Andraud, Mathieu, Paul, Mathilde, Guérin, Jean‐Luc
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: ETH Zurich 2021
Subjects:
R0
Online Access:https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000498073
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/498073
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Summary:Following the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N8) in France in early December 2020, we used duck mortality data from the index farm to investigate within-flock transmission dynamics. A stochastic epidemic model was fitted to the daily mortality data and model parameters were estimated using an approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) algorithm. The model predicted that the first bird in the flock was infected 5 days (95% credible interval, CI: 3–6) prior to the day of suspicion and that the transmission rate was 4.1 new infections per day (95% CI: 2.8–5.8). On average, ducks became infectious 4.1 h (95% CI: 0.7–9.1) after infection and remained infectious for 4.3 days (95% CI: 2.8–5.7). The model also predicted that 34% (50% prediction interval: 8%–76%) of birds would already be infectious by the day of suspicion, emphasizing the substantial latent threat this virus could pose to other poultry farms and to neighbouring wild birds. This study illustrates how ... : Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 68 (6) ...