Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice ...
Improved knowledge of the contributing sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice over the 21st century is essential for evaluating impacts of a changing Arctic environment. Here, we consider the role of internal variability, model structure and emissions scenario in projections of Arct...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
ETH Zurich
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000478018 http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/478018 |
| Summary: | Improved knowledge of the contributing sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice over the 21st century is essential for evaluating impacts of a changing Arctic environment. Here, we consider the role of internal variability, model structure and emissions scenario in projections of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) by using six single model initial-condition large ensembles and a suite of models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For projections of September Arctic SIA change, internal variability accounts for as much as 40%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade, while emissions scenario dominates uncertainty toward the end of the century. Model structure accounts for 60%–70% of the total uncertainty by mid-century and declines to 30% at the end of the 21st century in the summer months. For projections of wintertime Arctic SIA change, internal variability contributes as much as 50%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade and impacts total uncertainty ... : Environmental Research Letters, 16 (4) ... |
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