Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces ...

• Main Authors: Fronzek, Stefan, Carter, Timothy R., Pirttioja, Nina, Alkemade, Rob, Audsley, Eric, Bugmann, Harald, Flörke, Martina, Holman, Ian, Honda, Yasushi, Ito, Akihiko, Janes-Bassett, Victoria, Lafond, Valentine, Leemans, Rik, Mokrech, Marc, Nunez, Sarahi, Sandars, Daniel, Snell, Rebecca, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Tanaka, Akemi, Wimmer, Florian, Yoshikawa, Minoru
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: ETH Zurich 2019
• Subjects: Impact model; Sensitivity analysis; Temperature; Precipitation; Population; Gross domestic product GDP; Northern Finland
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000333353; http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/333353

Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region ... : Regional Environmental Change, 19 (3) ...