Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ...

In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Nauels, Alexander, Rogelj, Joeri, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Meinshausen, Malte, Mengel, Matthias
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: ETH Zurich 2017
Subjects:
sea level rise
Shared socioeconomic pathways
climate change
climate impacts
climate mitigation
climate scenarios
antarctic dynamics
Antarc*
Antarctic
Online Access:https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000221340
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/230713
Description
Summary:In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986–2005 of 89 cm (likely range: 57–130 cm) for SSP1, 105 cm (73–150 cm) for SSP2, 105 cm (75–147 cm) for SSP3, 93 cm (63–133 cm) for SSP4, and 132 cm (95–189 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios are dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 52 cm (34–75 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm−2, 62 cm (40–96 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm−2, 75 cm (47–113 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm−2, and 91 cm (61–132 cm) ... : Environmental Research Letters, 12 (11) ...

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