Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison ...

• Main Authors: Huneeus, Nicolás, Basart, Sara, Fiedler, Stephanie, Morcrette, Jean-Jacques, Benedetti, Angela, Mulcahy, Jane, Terradellas, Enric, Pérez García-Pando, Carlos, Pejanović, Goran, Ničković, Slobodan, Arsenovic, Pavle, Schulz, Michael, Cuevas, Emilio, Baldasano, José M., Pey, Jorge, Rémy, Samuel, Cvetkovic, B.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: ETH Zurich 2016
• Subjects: Aerosol Robotic Network
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000116556; http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/116556

In the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and ... : Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16 (8) ...