ESTIMATION OF PREDICTIVE EFFICIENCY OF SEISMIC REGIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS

On the basis of theoretical-probabilistic approach to the Kamchatka Earthquakes Catalog, a subset of random events was specified and their probability values were calculated. The received probabilities of random events are considered as predictors of strong earthquakes with the energy class of KS≥14...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Bogdanov, V., Pavlov, V.
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Bulletin KRASEC. Physical and Mathematical Sciences 2017
Subjects:
probability
seismic regime
predictive efficiency
Kamchatka
Online Access:https://dx.doi.org/10.18454/2313-0156-2017-16-1-74-84
http://krasec.ru/Bog2017-161/
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Summary:On the basis of theoretical-probabilistic approach to the Kamchatka Earthquakes Catalog, a subset of random events was specified and their probability values were calculated. The received probabilities of random events are considered as predictors of strong earthquakes with the energy class of KS≥14. Their efficiency V, reliability R and forecast efficiency (informative value) J were calculated for the periods of seismic activity and seismic quiescence. : №1 (2017)

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