Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries. ...

• Main Authors: Islam, Nazrul, Jdanov, Dmitri A, Shkolnikov, Vladimir M, Khunti, Kamlesh, Kawachi, Ichiro, White, Martin, Lewington, Sarah, Lacey, Ben
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: BMJ 2021
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; COVID-19; Child; Child, Preschool; Databases, Factual; Developed Countries; Female; Global Health; Humans; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Life Expectancy; Male; Middle Aged; Mortality, Premature; Young Adult; Iceland
• Online Access: https://dx.doi.org/10.17863/cam.77813; https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/handle/1810/330370

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Time series analysis. SETTING: 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. PARTICIPANTS: Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization standard life table. RESULTS: Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The ...