Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LE – Part 2: A Lagrangian analysis ...
Future changes in extratropical cyclone structure and dynamics may lead to important impacts but are not yet fully understood. In the first part of this study, we have applied a composite approach together with potential vorticity (PV) inversion to study such changes in the dynamics of North Atlanti...
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| Format: | Text |
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Freie Universität Berlin
2024
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| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-43295 https://refubium.fu-berlin.de/handle/fub188/43579 |
| Summary: | Future changes in extratropical cyclone structure and dynamics may lead to important impacts but are not yet fully understood. In the first part of this study, we have applied a composite approach together with potential vorticity (PV) inversion to study such changes in the dynamics of North Atlantic cyclones. Here, this is complemented with the help of a Lagrangian perspective, making use of air parcel trajectories to investigate the causes of altered PV anomalies as well as the role that cyclone airstreams play in shaping these changes. Intense cyclones in the extended winter seasons of two periods, 1990–2000 and 2091–2100, are studied in Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) simulations, and backward trajectories are calculated from the cyclone area as a basis to construct cyclone-centered composites of Lagrangian tendencies and their projected future changes. Our results show that diabatic processes on a timescale of 24 h shape the cyclones' low-level PV distribution and corroborate that ... |
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