Probabilistic assessment of the impact of uncertainty in Antarctic viscoelastic properties on 5000-yr future Antarctic projections performed with the f.ETISh model ...

We perform simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over a time span of 5000 years, starting from present-day geometry, under the four extended RCP scenarios (Golledge et al., 2015) with the "fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet" model (f.ETISh; Pattyn et al., 2017) v1.4. All simulatio...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Coulon, Violaine, Bulthuis, Kevin, Sun, Sainan, Haubner, Konstanze, Pattyn, Frank
Format: Dataset
Language:English
Published: PANGAEA 2020
Subjects:
Antarctic ice-sheet
glacial isostatic adjustment
Ice-sheet modelling
File content
Binary Object
Binary Object Media Type
Binary Object File Size
Antarctic
The Antarctic
Antarc*
Antarctica
Ice Sheet
Online Access:https://dx.doi.org/10.1594/pangaea.911805
https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.911805
Description
Summary:We perform simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet over a time span of 5000 years, starting from present-day geometry, under the four extended RCP scenarios (Golledge et al., 2015) with the "fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet" model (f.ETISh; Pattyn et al., 2017) v1.4. All simulations are performed at a spatial resolution of 25 km.We perform a probabilistic assessment of the impact of uncertainties in Antarctic solid Earth rheological properties on the response of the Antarctic ice sheet for each RCP scenario. We consider four ELRA parameters (D_W, D_E, tau_W, tau_E) to be uncertain parameters and we assume the (prior) marginal probability distributions to follow log-uniform distributions. We determine probabilistic projections of the grounded-ice volume (Vg) as well as marginal probabilities of being ungrounded and Sobol sensitivity indices using Monte carlo estimation with 2000 samples. Each Monte carlo sample can be interpreted as a plausible solid Earth configuration for Antarctica, randomly ...

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