Stratospheric Impacts of Continuing CFC-11 Emissions Simulated in a Chemistry-Climate Model ...
Trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11, CFCl3) is a major anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance and greenhouse gas, and its production and consumption are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, recent studies show that CFC-11 emissions increased during 2014–2017 relative to 2008–2012. In this st...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
AGU
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://dx.doi.org/10.13016/m2vrf6-abyd https://mdsoar.org/handle/11603/26697 |
| Summary: | Trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11, CFCl3) is a major anthropogenic ozone-depleting substance and greenhouse gas, and its production and consumption are controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, recent studies show that CFC-11 emissions increased during 2014–2017 relative to 2008–2012. In this study, we use a chemistry-climate model to investigate the stratospheric impacts of potential CFC-11 emissions continuing into the future. As a sensitivity test, we use a high CFC-11 scenario in which the inferred 2013–2016 average emissions of 72.5 Gg/yr is sustained to year 2100. This increases equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine by 15% in 2100, relative to the WMO (2018) baseline scenario in which future emissions decay with a bank release rate of 6.4%/year. Consistent with recent studies, the resulting ozone response has a linear dependence on the accumulated CFC-11 emissions, yielding global and Antarctic spring total ozone sensitivity per 1,000 Gg of −0.37 and −3.9 DU, respectively, averaged over ... |
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