Long-term hazard assessment at Irazú volcano (Costa Rica)

• Published in: Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
• Main Authors: Campos-Durán, Daniela, Martí, Joan, Alvarado, Guillermo E.
• Other Authors: Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas https://ror.org/02gfc7t72
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2024
• Subjects: Land planning; Costa Rica; Emergency plans; Hazard assessment; Irazú volcano; Protect; restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems; sustainably manage forests; combat desertification; and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss; Esquivel; Terranova
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10261/360499; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2024.108068; https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85195063736

Irazú volcano in Costa Rica is one of the most active and potentially dangerous volcanoes in Central America. Over the last 2600 years (before 1723 CE) it has experienced at least thirty explosive events of Strombolian, phreatomagmatic, and phreatic character and from different vent areas, ranging in size from VEI 1 to VEI 3, generating lava flows, lahars, non-eruptive sector collapses, and strong seismicity, even without eruptions. Recent tephrochronological data confirm that this volcano has had an eruption frequency ranging from 23 to 100 years, with a major event every 85 years. Several thousands of people live in the vicinity of the Irazú volcano, in areas that may be heavily impacted by lahars, ash falls, and pyroclastic density currents. Moreover, >2.5 million people live in the Greater Metropolitan Area, at the heart of the Costa Rica economy, located <30 km to the west of the volcano subject to the prevalent wind direction that has controlled ash fall emplacement for historical eruptions. In this contribution we conduct a long-term hazard assessment that aims to anticipate when (temporal analysis), where (volcanic susceptibility, i.e., vent location), and how (eruption scenarios) the next explosive episodes at Irazú volcano will occur. This information is essential to implement more rational territorial planning and to design better emergency plans for coping with future volcanic crises. DCD and JM are grateful for the CSIC I-Coop 2021 COOPA20498 grant. We thank Lucia Capra and Stephen Self for their very helpful reviews. The English text has been reviewed and revised by Dr. Grant George Buffett of Terranova Scientific (www.terranova.barcelona). To M.Sc. Lidier Esquivel, head of the Unidad de Investigación y Análisis de Riesgo de la Comisión Nacional de Prevención de Riesgos y Atención de Emergencias (CNE), and his group for their collaboration. To SINAC employees, especially to the park rangers of the Irazú Volcano National Park for their collaboration. This work was supported by OP RDE, MEYS, ...