Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems
16 pages, 9 figures, 1 table, supplementary data https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213.-- Data availability: The data underlying this article will be shared on reasonable request to the corresponding author Ecosystem models, such as Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), provide a platform to simulate intrica...
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International Council for the Exploration of the Sea
2024
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/356742 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 |
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ftcsic:oai:digital.csic.es:10261/356742 2024-06-09T07:48:39+00:00 Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems Bentley, Jacob W. Chagaris, David Coll, Marta Heymans, Johanna J. Serpetti, Natalia Walters, Carl J. Christensen, Villy European Commission Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada 2024-03 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/356742 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 en eng International Council for the Exploration of the Sea #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101083922 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101000302 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101059877 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-118097RB-I00/ES/HACIA LA MEJORA DE LOS MODELOS DE ECOSISTEMAS MARINOS PARA PROYECTAR LOS EFECTOS ACUMULADOS DEL CAMBIO GLOBAL Y POSIBLES FUTUROS DEL OCEANO/ Publisher's version https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 Sí ICES Journal of Marine Science 81(2): 260-275 (2024) 1054-3139 CEX2019-000928-S http://hdl.handle.net/10261/356742 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 1095-9289 open Ecopath with Ecosim Ecosystem modeling Temporal dynamics Calibration Fisheries Indicators Conserve and sustainably use the oceans seas and marine resources for sustainable development artículo 2024 ftcsic https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 2024-05-14T23:52:28Z 16 pages, 9 figures, 1 table, supplementary data https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213.-- Data availability: The data underlying this article will be shared on reasonable request to the corresponding author Ecosystem models, such as Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), provide a platform to simulate intricate policy scenarios where multiple species, pressures, and ecosystem services interact. Complex questions often return complex answers, necessitating evidence and advice to be communicated in terms of trade-offs, risks, and uncertainty. Calibration procedures for EwE, which can act as a source of uncertainty and bias in model results, have yet to be explored in a comprehensive way that communicates how sensitive model outputs are to different calibration approaches. As the EwE community has grown, multiple divergent approaches have been applied to calibrate models through the estimation of vulnerability multipliers: parameters that augment the consumption rate limits of predators. Here we explore the underlying principles of vulnerability multipliers as well as existing calibration approaches and their justification. Two case studies are presented: the first explores how vulnerability multipliers emerge based on the chosen calibration approach using simulated data, while the second takes two operational EwE models (Irish Sea and Northwest Atlantic Continental Shelf) and compares their outputs when calibrated following alternate calibration approaches. We show how calibration approaches can impact model-derived advice and provide a list of best practice recommendations for EwE calibration J.B. would like to acknowledge the EU Horizon project OceanICU (grant agreement no. 101083922). J.J.H. and V.C. would like to acknowledge the EU Horizon 2020 project EcoScope: ecocentric management for sustainable fisheries and healthy marine ecosystems project (grant agreement no. 101000302). M.C. would like to acknowledge EU Horizon project Ges4Seas (grant agreement no. 101059877), the Spanish project ProOceans (Plan Estatal de ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Northwest Atlantic Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) ICES Journal of Marine Science 81 2 260 275 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Digital.CSIC (Spanish National Research Council) |
op_collection_id |
ftcsic |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecopath with Ecosim Ecosystem modeling Temporal dynamics Calibration Fisheries Indicators Conserve and sustainably use the oceans seas and marine resources for sustainable development |
spellingShingle |
Ecopath with Ecosim Ecosystem modeling Temporal dynamics Calibration Fisheries Indicators Conserve and sustainably use the oceans seas and marine resources for sustainable development Bentley, Jacob W. Chagaris, David Coll, Marta Heymans, Johanna J. Serpetti, Natalia Walters, Carl J. Christensen, Villy Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
topic_facet |
Ecopath with Ecosim Ecosystem modeling Temporal dynamics Calibration Fisheries Indicators Conserve and sustainably use the oceans seas and marine resources for sustainable development |
description |
16 pages, 9 figures, 1 table, supplementary data https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213.-- Data availability: The data underlying this article will be shared on reasonable request to the corresponding author Ecosystem models, such as Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), provide a platform to simulate intricate policy scenarios where multiple species, pressures, and ecosystem services interact. Complex questions often return complex answers, necessitating evidence and advice to be communicated in terms of trade-offs, risks, and uncertainty. Calibration procedures for EwE, which can act as a source of uncertainty and bias in model results, have yet to be explored in a comprehensive way that communicates how sensitive model outputs are to different calibration approaches. As the EwE community has grown, multiple divergent approaches have been applied to calibrate models through the estimation of vulnerability multipliers: parameters that augment the consumption rate limits of predators. Here we explore the underlying principles of vulnerability multipliers as well as existing calibration approaches and their justification. Two case studies are presented: the first explores how vulnerability multipliers emerge based on the chosen calibration approach using simulated data, while the second takes two operational EwE models (Irish Sea and Northwest Atlantic Continental Shelf) and compares their outputs when calibrated following alternate calibration approaches. We show how calibration approaches can impact model-derived advice and provide a list of best practice recommendations for EwE calibration J.B. would like to acknowledge the EU Horizon project OceanICU (grant agreement no. 101083922). J.J.H. and V.C. would like to acknowledge the EU Horizon 2020 project EcoScope: ecocentric management for sustainable fisheries and healthy marine ecosystems project (grant agreement no. 101000302). M.C. would like to acknowledge EU Horizon project Ges4Seas (grant agreement no. 101059877), the Spanish project ProOceans (Plan Estatal de ... |
author2 |
European Commission Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bentley, Jacob W. Chagaris, David Coll, Marta Heymans, Johanna J. Serpetti, Natalia Walters, Carl J. Christensen, Villy |
author_facet |
Bentley, Jacob W. Chagaris, David Coll, Marta Heymans, Johanna J. Serpetti, Natalia Walters, Carl J. Christensen, Villy |
author_sort |
Bentley, Jacob W. |
title |
Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
title_short |
Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
title_full |
Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
title_fullStr |
Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
title_sort |
calibrating ecosystem models to support ecosystem-based management of marine systems |
publisher |
International Council for the Exploration of the Sea |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/356742 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 |
genre |
Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northwest Atlantic |
op_relation |
#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101083922 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101000302 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/HE/101059877 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2020-118097RB-I00/ES/HACIA LA MEJORA DE LOS MODELOS DE ECOSISTEMAS MARINOS PARA PROYECTAR LOS EFECTOS ACUMULADOS DEL CAMBIO GLOBAL Y POSIBLES FUTUROS DEL OCEANO/ Publisher's version https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 Sí ICES Journal of Marine Science 81(2): 260-275 (2024) 1054-3139 CEX2019-000928-S http://hdl.handle.net/10261/356742 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 1095-9289 |
op_rights |
open |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsad213 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
81 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
260 |
op_container_end_page |
275 |
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1801380449561346048 |