From pattern to process? Dual travelling waves, with contrasting propagation speeds, best describe a self-organised spatio-temporal pattern in population growth of a cyclic rodent

• Published in: Ecology Letters
• Main Authors: Roos, Deon, Caminero Saldaña, Constantino, Elston, David A., Mougeot, François, García-Ariza, María Carmen, Arroyo, Beatriz, Luque-Larena, Juan José, Rojo Revilla, Francisco Javier, Lambin, Xavier
• Other Authors: Instituto Tecnológico Agrario de Castilla y León, Junta de Castilla y León, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Wiley-VCH 2022
• Subjects: Common vole; Microtus arvalis
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10261/287229; https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.14074; https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033; https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000268; https://doi.org/10.13039/501100014180

The dynamics of cyclic populations distributed in space result from the relative strength of synchronising influences and the limited dispersal of destabilising factors (activators and inhibitors), known to cause multi-annual population cycles. However, while each of these have been well studied in isolation, there is limited empirical evidence of how the processes of synchronisation and activation–inhibition act together, largely owing to the scarcity of datasets with sufficient spatial and temporal scale and resolution. We assessed a variety of models that could be underlying the spatio-temporal pattern, designed to capture both theoretical and empirical understandings of travelling waves using large-scale (>35,000 km2), multi-year (2011–2017) field monitoring data on abundances of common vole (Microtus arvalis), a cyclic agricultural rodent pest. We found most support for a pattern formed from the summation of two radial travelling waves with contrasting speeds that together describe population growth rates across the region. We are indebted to the staff of the Área de Plagas, Instituto Tecnológico Agrario de Castilla-y-León (ITACyL) and the Consejería de Agricultura, Ganadería y Desarrollo Rural de la Junta de Castilla-y-León, who collected the data within the ITACYL 2007/2155 Project and the Monitoring Program of common vole populations in Castilla-y-León. The analysis and DR were funded by Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) [grant number BB/M010996/1], through Eastbio DTP. The study contributes to the BOOMRAT project (MINECO: PID2019-109327RB-I00). For the purpose of open access, the author has applied a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) licence (where permitted by UKRI, ‘Open Government Licence’ or ‘Creative Commons Attribution No-derivatives (CC BY-ND) licence’ may be stated instead) to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising. Peer reviewed