Brief Communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice-shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models
The uncertain sensitivity of Antarctic ice-shelf basal melt to ocean warming strongly contributes to uncertainties in sea-level projections. Here, we explore the response of five dedicated basal melt models to an idealised sub-thermocline 1 °C warming and find a large intermodel spread with...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2358 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2358/ |
| Summary: | The uncertain sensitivity of Antarctic ice-shelf basal melt to ocean warming strongly contributes to uncertainties in sea-level projections. Here, we explore the response of five dedicated basal melt models to an idealised sub-thermocline 1 °C warming and find a large intermodel spread with total melt increases between 67 % and 240 %. For deep regions of presentlyfast-melting ice shelves, this spread can reach two orders of magnitude. We conclude that a consistent calibration on present-conditions does not guarantee consistent melt sensitivities and that diversity in basal melt forcing is presently unavoidable to prevent underestimating uncertainties in future projections. |
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