Surface networks in the Arctic may miss a future "methane bomb"
The Arctic is warming up to 4 times faster than the global average, leading to significant environmental changes. Given the sensitivity of natural methane ( CH 4 ) sources to environmental conditions, increasing Arctic temperatures are expected to lead to higher CH 4 emissions, particularly due to p...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2024
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2308 https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-2308/ |
| Summary: | The Arctic is warming up to 4 times faster than the global average, leading to significant environmental changes. Given the sensitivity of natural methane ( CH 4 ) sources to environmental conditions, increasing Arctic temperatures are expected to lead to higher CH 4 emissions, particularly due to permafrost thaw and the exposure of organic matter. Some estimates therefore assume the existence of an Arctic methane bomb , where vast CH 4 quantities are suddenly and rapidly released over several years. This study examines the ability of the in situ observation network to detect such events in the Arctic, a generally poorly constrained region. Using the FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle) atmospheric transport model and varying CH 4 emission scenarios, we found that areas with a dense observation network could detect a methane bomb occurring within 2 to 10 years. In contrast, regions with sparse coverage would need 10 to 30 years, with potential false positives in other areas. |
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