Using Ice Cores and Gaussian Process Emulation to Recover Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial

The shape and extent of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is a matter of controversy, with different studies proposing a wide range of reconstructions. Here, for the first time, we combine stable water isotopic information from ice cores with isotope-enabled climate mo...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
Main Authors: Domingo, Dario, Malmierca-Vallet, Irene, Sime, Louise, Voss, Jochen, Capron, Emilie
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2020
Subjects:
Gaussian process emulation
Greenland Ice Sheet
Last Interglacial
SEA-LEVEL RISE
ANTARCTIC ICE
GLACIAL MAXIMUM
AIR CONTENT
CHRONOLOGY AICC2012
OXYGEN-ISOTOPE
COUPLED MODEL
CLIMATE
SIMULATIONS
CONSTRAINTS
Antarc*
Antarctic
Greenland
Greenland ice cores
ice core
Ice Sheet
Online Access:https://curis.ku.dk/portal/da/publications/using-ice-cores-and-gaussian-process-emulation-to-recover-changes-in-the-greenland-ice-sheet-during-the-last-interglacial(4f52e06e-5b76-4a8a-ba47-1761bcfd4e9d).html
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JF005237
https://curis.ku.dk/ws/files/247168558/2019JF005237.pdf
Description
Summary:The shape and extent of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is a matter of controversy, with different studies proposing a wide range of reconstructions. Here, for the first time, we combine stable water isotopic information from ice cores with isotope-enabled climate model outputs to investigate the problem. Exploring the space of possible ice sheet geometries by simulation is prohibitively expensive. We address this problem by using a Gaussian process emulator as a statistical surrogate of the full climate model. The emulator is calibrated using the results of a small number of carefully chosen simulations and then permits fast, probabilistic predictions of the simulator outputs at untried inputs. The inputs are GIS morphologies, parameterized through a dimension-reduction technique adapted to the spherical geometry of the setting. Based on the emulator predictions, the characteristics of morphologies compatible with the available ice core measurements are explored, leading to a reduction in uncertainty on the LIG GIS morphology. Moreover, a scenario-based approach allows to assess the gains in uncertainty reduction which would result from the availability of better dated LIG measurements in Greenland ice cores.

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