Predictive systems ecology

• Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
• Main Authors: Evans, Matthew, Bithell, Mike, Cornell, Stephen, Dall, Sasha, Diaz, Sandra Myrna, Emmott, Stephen, Ernande, Bruno, Grimm, Volker, Hodgson, David J., Lewis, Simon L., Mace, Georgina M., Morecroft, Micheal, Moustakas, Aristides, Murphy, Eugene, Newbold, Tim, Norris, K. J, Petchey, Owen, Smith, Matthew, Travis, Justin, Benton, Tim
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: The Royal Society
• Subjects: MODELLING; SYSTEMS ECOLOGY; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT; Ecología; Ciencias Biológicas; CIENCIAS NATURALES Y EXACTAS; Antarctic; Argentina; Diaz; Hodgson; Mace; Antarc*; British Antarctic Survey
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11336/10867

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive. Fil: Evans, Matthew. Queen Mary University of London. School of Biological and Chemical Sciences; Reino Unido Fil: Bithell, Mike. University of Liverpool. Institute of Integrative Biology; Reino Unido Fil: Cornell, Stephen. University of Liverpool. Institute of Integrative Biology; Reino Unido Fil: Dall, Sasha. University of Exeter. College of Life and Environmental Sciences.Centre for Ecology and Conservation; Reino Unido Fil: Diaz, Sandra Myrna. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (p); Argentina Fil: Emmott, Stephen. Computational Science Laboratory, Cambridge; Reino Unido Fil: Ernande, Bruno. IFREMER. Laboratorie Ressources Halieutiques; Francia Fil: Grimm, Volker. Helmhotz Center for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling, Leipzig; Alemania Fil: Hodgson, David J. University of Exeter. College of Life and Environmental Sciences. Centre for Ecology and Conservation; Reino Unido Fil: Lewis, Simon L. University of Leeds. Earth and Biosphere Institute; Reino Unido Fil: Mace, Georgina M. University College London. Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment; Reino Unido Fil: Morecroft, Micheal. Cromwell House; Reino Unido Fil: Moustakas, Aristides. Queen Mary University of London. School of Biological and Chemical Sciences; Reino Unido Fil: Murphy, Eugene. British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge; Reino Unido Fil: Newbold, Tim. United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring, Cambridge; Reino Unido Fil: Norris, K. J. The University of Reading, Centre for Agri-Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development; Reino Unido Fil: Petchey, Owen. University of Zurich . Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies; Reino Unido Fil: Smith, Matthew. Computational Science Laboratory; Reino Unido Fil: Travis, Justin. Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen; Reino Unido Fil: Benton, Tim. University of Leeds. School of Biology; Reino Unido