| Summary: | The wintertime North-Atlantic exhibits enhanced circulation variability relative to other areas of the globe and is a key determinant of weather and climate in the highly populated regions of Europe and Eastern North America. Previous work has linked extreme stratospheric polar vortex and planetary wave heat flux events with variability of the North-Atlantic circulation. To elucidate the role of the stratosphere in driving variability of the North-Atlantic circulation, the goal of this thesis is to clarify the relationship between extreme planetary wave heat flux and vortex events and understand the dynamical mechanisms driving extreme stratospheric planetary wave heat flux events using an idealized model. The relationship between extreme stratospheric planetary wave heat flux and polar vortex events is clarified by comparing and contrasting their composite lifecycles using reanalysis data. Extreme negative heat flux events, defined as those less than the 5th percentile of the wintertime wave-1 distribution, involve stratospheric EP-flux divergence producing an acceleration of the vortex whereas extreme positive heat flux events, defined as those greater than the 95th percentile, involve stratospheric EP-flux convergence producing a deceleration of the vortex. Similar but smaller magnitude heat flux (22th and 78th percentile) events contribute to the development of longer-timescale vortex events. Negative heat flux events precede strong vortex events, showing that strong vortex events are true dynamical events involving wave-mean flow interaction. Conversely, positive heat flux events precede weak vortex events. The tropospheric jet shifts in the North-Atlantic that occur almost simultaneously with extreme stratospheric heat flux events are shown to be comparable if not larger than those that follow extreme vortex events for several weeks. Next, a dry-dynamical core model is configured to capture the lifecycle of extreme positive and negative heat flux events seen in reanalysis. The events are not captured using ...
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