Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
The potential for sea ice-albedo feedback to give rise to nonlinear climate change in the Arctic Ocean – defined as a nonlinear relationship between polar and global temperature change or, equivalently, a time-varying polar amplification – is explored in IPCC AR4 climate models. Five models supplyin...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.81.2210 2023-05-15T13:10:48+02:00 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Michael Winton Arctic Sea Ice Decline The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives 2007 application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.81.2210 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~mw/agu_chap.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.81.2210 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~mw/agu_chap.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~mw/agu_chap.pdf text 2007 ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T19:21:26Z The potential for sea ice-albedo feedback to give rise to nonlinear climate change in the Arctic Ocean – defined as a nonlinear relationship between polar and global temperature change or, equivalently, a time-varying polar amplification – is explored in IPCC AR4 climate models. Five models supplying SRES A1B ensembles for the 21 st century are examined and very linear relationships are found between polar and global temperatures (indicating linear Arctic Ocean climate change), and between polar temperature and albedo (the potential source of nonlinearity). Two of the climate models have Arctic Ocean simulations that become annually sea ice-free under the stronger CO2 increase to quadrupling forcing. Both of these runs show increases in polar amplification at polar temperatures above-5 o C and one exhibits heat budget changes that are consistent with the small ice cap instability of simple energy balance models. Both models show linear warming up to a polar temperature of-5 o C, well above the disappearance of their September ice covers at about-9 o C. Below-5 o C, surface albedo decreases smoothly as reductions move, progressively, to earlier parts of the sunlit period. Atmospheric heat transport exerts a strong cooling effect during the transition to annually ice-free conditions. Specialized experiments with atmosphere and coupled models show that the main damping mechanism for sea ice region surface temperature is reduced upward heat flux through the adjacent ice-free oceans resulting in reduced atmospheric heat transport into the region. 2 I. Text albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Ice cap Sea ice Unknown Arctic Arctic Ocean |
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ftciteseerx |
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English |
description |
The potential for sea ice-albedo feedback to give rise to nonlinear climate change in the Arctic Ocean – defined as a nonlinear relationship between polar and global temperature change or, equivalently, a time-varying polar amplification – is explored in IPCC AR4 climate models. Five models supplying SRES A1B ensembles for the 21 st century are examined and very linear relationships are found between polar and global temperatures (indicating linear Arctic Ocean climate change), and between polar temperature and albedo (the potential source of nonlinearity). Two of the climate models have Arctic Ocean simulations that become annually sea ice-free under the stronger CO2 increase to quadrupling forcing. Both of these runs show increases in polar amplification at polar temperatures above-5 o C and one exhibits heat budget changes that are consistent with the small ice cap instability of simple energy balance models. Both models show linear warming up to a polar temperature of-5 o C, well above the disappearance of their September ice covers at about-9 o C. Below-5 o C, surface albedo decreases smoothly as reductions move, progressively, to earlier parts of the sunlit period. Atmospheric heat transport exerts a strong cooling effect during the transition to annually ice-free conditions. Specialized experiments with atmosphere and coupled models show that the main damping mechanism for sea ice region surface temperature is reduced upward heat flux through the adjacent ice-free oceans resulting in reduced atmospheric heat transport into the region. 2 I. |
author2 |
The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives |
format |
Text |
author |
Michael Winton Arctic Sea Ice Decline |
spellingShingle |
Michael Winton Arctic Sea Ice Decline Geophysical Fluid Dynamics |
author_facet |
Michael Winton Arctic Sea Ice Decline |
author_sort |
Michael Winton |
title |
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics |
title_short |
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics |
title_full |
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics |
title_fullStr |
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics |
title_sort |
geophysical fluid dynamics |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.81.2210 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~mw/agu_chap.pdf |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Ice cap Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Ice cap Sea ice |
op_source |
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~mw/agu_chap.pdf |
op_relation |
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.81.2210 http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~mw/agu_chap.pdf |
op_rights |
Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. |
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1766243014970179584 |