SEA ICE EDGE FORECAST VERIFICATION PROGRAM FOR THE BERING SEA
The Navy/NOAA Joint Ice Center issues 7-Day forecasts of changes in the position of the sea ice edge over the Bering Sea each week. Theseforecasts are used by marine interests, especially crab fishing fleets, to aid in safe and efficient operations. The Center undertook the verification of these for...
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| Language: | English |
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| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.667.4026 http://nwas.org/digest/papers/1991/Vol16-Issue4-Nov1991/Pg6-Wohl.pdf |
| Summary: | The Navy/NOAA Joint Ice Center issues 7-Day forecasts of changes in the position of the sea ice edge over the Bering Sea each week. Theseforecasts are used by marine interests, especially crab fishing fleets, to aid in safe and efficient operations. The Center undertook the verification of these forecasts, despite observational difficulties, in order to assess their merits and to explore ways to make them more accurate. Ice forecasts for the ice seasons of 1987-88 and /988-89 were compared to climatologically derived changes in ice edge position and comparative statistics were de vel-oped. The mean error of the Center's 7-Day forecasts was about 23 n mi and 25 n mi for 1987-88 and 1988-89, respec-tively. The Center's forecasts outpeljormed climatology in both years by about 25%. Persistence forecasts proved poor since the ice edge rarely remained in the same location from week to week. A modified persistence forecast (using the prior week 's ice edge motion) also proved far less accurate than climatological or Center forecasts. The Joint Ice Cen-ter's requirements for forecast aCCl/racy were shown to be met, on average, but individual forecast errors highlight the Ice Center's dependence upon accurate medium range predictions by both NMC alld the European Center for |
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