Transient Polar Amplication in Arctic Observations and Climate Simulations
Ampli cation of Arctic surface warming is a well known feature of climate model predictions for the mid and late 21st century. However, as of 2004, observed Arctic surface warming is not yet signicantly higher than the whole northern hemisphere. Here we compare surface warming in the Arctic and the...
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
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| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.614.1163 http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~bitz/bitz_goosse.pdf |
| Summary: | Ampli cation of Arctic surface warming is a well known feature of climate model predictions for the mid and late 21st century. However, as of 2004, observed Arctic surface warming is not yet signicantly higher than the whole northern hemisphere. Here we compare surface warming in the Arctic and the northern hemisphere for the past 150 yr in observations and large ensembles of historical runs from two climate models. Single realiza-tion of the models also lack signicantly higher Arctic warming in the last half century, and one model lacks signi cantly higher Arctic warming for the last 150 yr. The agreement between models and observations in the past indicates that polar amplication cannot be ruled out in the future. Using historical runs and future sce-narios to estimate trends and internal variability, we predict Arctic warming won't be signicantly greater than the northern hemisphere until at least 2020. 1. |
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