June 2010 Sea Ice Outlook – AWI/FastOpt/OASys contribution
As for the SIO 2009 we make use of the 4DVar data assimilation system NAOSIMDAS to perform an additional set of ensemble experiments starting from an initial state determined via data assimilation. Experimental setup For the present outlook the coupled ice-ocean model NAOSIM has been forced with atm...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2010
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.605.4037 http://www.damocles-eu.org/artman2/uploads/1/Sea_ice_outlook_2010_____AWI_FastOpt_OASys_contribution.pdf |
| Summary: | As for the SIO 2009 we make use of the 4DVar data assimilation system NAOSIMDAS to perform an additional set of ensemble experiments starting from an initial state determined via data assimilation. Experimental setup For the present outlook the coupled ice-ocean model NAOSIM has been forced with atmospheric surface data from January 1948 to May 28th 2010. This atmospheric forcing has been taken from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (Kalnay et al., 1996). We used atmospheric data from the years 1990 to 2009 for the ensemble prediction. The model experiments all start from the same initial conditions on May 28th 2010. We thus obtain 20 different realizations of sea ice development in summer 2010. We use this ensemble to derive probabilities of ice extent minimum values in September 2010. As in 2009 two ensemble experiments with different initial conditions on May 28th 2010 were performed: Ensemble I starts from the state of ocean and sea ice taken from a forward run of NAOSIM driven with NCEP/NCAR atmospheric data from January 1948 to 28th May 2010. Ensemble II starts from an optimised state derived by NAOSIMDAS with an assimilation window from March 2010 to May 28th 2010. The following observational data streams were assimilated: Hydrographic data from Ice Tethered Platform profilers ( |
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