Real-time forecasting for the Antarctic: an evaluation of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). Monthly Weather Review 133

• Main Authors: David H. Bromwich, Andrew, J. Monaghan, Kevin W. Manning
• Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: 2005
• Subjects: Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*
• Online Access: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.586.4989; http://polarmet.osu.edu/PolarMet/PMGFulldocs/bromwich_monaghan_mwr_2005.pdf

In response to the need for improved weather prediction capabilities in support of the U.S. Antarctic Program’s field operations, the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) was implemented in Oc-tober 2000. AMPS employs the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University– NCAR Mesoscale Model optimized for use over ice sheets. The modeling system consists of several domains ranging in horizontal resolution from 90 km covering a large part of the Southern Hemisphere to 3.3 km over the complex terrain surrounding McMurdo, the hub of U.S. operations. The performance of the 30-km AMPS domain versus observations from manned and automatic weather stations is statistically evaluated for a 2-yr period from September 2001 through August 2003. The simulated 12–36-h surface pressure and near-surface temperature at most sites have correlations of r 0.95 and r 0.75, respectively, and small biases. Surface wind speeds reflect the complex topography and generally have correlations between 0.5 and 0.6, and positive biases of 1–2 m s1. In the free atmosphere, r 0.95 (geopotential height), r 0.9 (temperature), and r 0.8 (wind speed) at most sites. Over the annual cycle, there is little interseasonal variation in skill. Over the length of the forecast, a gradual decrease in skill is observed from hours 0–72. One exception is the surface pressure, which improves slightly in the first few hours, due in part