Global warming and hurricane intensity and frequency: The debate continues
ABSTRACT: The recent destruction due to hurricanes and the apparent increase in frequency in the southeastern United States, especially in 2005 season, has prompted many scientists to study possible causes of these changes. Some scientists believe that global warming and increased sea surface temper...
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
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| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.584.7718 http://www3.nd.edu/~nathaz/confs/(2007)Globalwarmingandhurricaneintensityandfrequency.pdf |
| Summary: | ABSTRACT: The recent destruction due to hurricanes and the apparent increase in frequency in the southeastern United States, especially in 2005 season, has prompted many scientists to study possible causes of these changes. Some scientists believe that global warming and increased sea surface temperatures are to blame. Warm water holds more energy to fuel hurricanes and may contribute to the conditions needed for the formation of hurricanes. The increased ocean tempera-tures may cause a decrease in wind shear and an increase in evaporation and atmospheric water vapor. These factors all contribute to the conditions conducive to formation of hurricanes. Some scientists, however, simply believe that the recent increases are due to normal multidecadal oscil-lations resulting from currents and Thermohaline Circulation. Whereas others believe that a change in the instrumentation and data collection techniques has led to unreliable data and the creation of trends that do not exist. Although some flaws in the data do exist, global warming and increased sea surface temperatures do appear to have influenced hurricane frequency and inten-sity. The magnitude, however, of this effect is not yet completely quantifiable. The absence of a single major landfall by a major hurricane in the Gulf and Atlantic region in 2006 season adds yet another source of uncertainty in the currently observed patterns. This paper examines these issues in light of the apparent increase in hurricane frequency and intensity in the North Atlantic basin in recent years. |
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