Population viability of barren-ground grizzly bears in Nunavut and the Northwest Territories
ABSTRACT. We modelled probabilities of population decline as a function of annual kill for a population of barren-ground grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) inhabiting Nunavut and the Northwest Territories, Canada. Our results suggest that the population is at risk of decline, especially if annual removal...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2003
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.564.9305 http://pubs.aina.ucalgary.ca/arctic/arctic56-2-185.pdf |
| Summary: | ABSTRACT. We modelled probabilities of population decline as a function of annual kill for a population of barren-ground grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) inhabiting Nunavut and the Northwest Territories, Canada. Our results suggest that the population is at risk of decline, especially if annual removal rates increase from the 42-year mean of 13.4 bears per year. Adding six bears to the mean annual kill results in a greater than 40 % chance of a decrease by one-quarter in population size over the next 50 years, compared to a 10 % chance with the current level of human-caused mortality. Additional mortalities may result from increased problem behaviour by bears at mine sites or hunt and exploration camps, given recent increases in human activity in the region, and may already be present as unreported mortality. We believe any increase in current harvest quotas would considerably lessen conservation prospects for the population. Key words: Arctic, demography, grizzly bear, harvest, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, population viability, PVA, Ursus arctos RÉSUMÉ. On a simulé les probabilités de baisse de la population en fonction du prélèvement annuel dans le cadre de la chasse pour une population de grizzlis de la toundra (Ursus arctos) habitant le Nunavut et les Territoires du Nord-Ouest, au Canada. Nos résultats suggèrent que la population risque de décliner, surtout si les taux de prélèvement augmentent par rapport à la moyenne établie sur 42 ans qui est de 13,4 ours par an. Le fait d’ajouter 6 ours au prélèvement de chasse annuel augmente à plus de 40 % le risque que la population décline d’un quart au cours des prochains 50 ans, par rapport à 10 % dans le cas du niveau actuel de mortalité provoquée par les humains. Vu l’augmentation récente de l’activité anthropique dans la région, d’autres individus |
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