Paper No. 2004-SP-01 Peterson 1 Long-Range Forecasting of the Iceberg Population on the Grand Banks

A 0-2 month iceberg population forecast system is being developed using regression analysis, and is based primarily on the strong relationship between iceberg numbers on the Grand Banks and prior sea ice extent on the Newfoundland shelf. The regression analysis uses data from the International Ice P...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Ingrid K. Peterson
Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
Format: Text
Language:English
Subjects:
KEY WORDS
Icebergs
forecasting
sea ice extent
Grand Banks
Newfoundland
Sea ice
Online Access:http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.550.6576
http://ccmtgc.mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/science/ocean/seaice/Publications/peterson09.pdf
Description
Summary:A 0-2 month iceberg population forecast system is being developed using regression analysis, and is based primarily on the strong relationship between iceberg numbers on the Grand Banks and prior sea ice extent on the Newfoundland shelf. The regression analysis uses data from the International Ice Patrol Iceberg Sightings Database (1960-2002) and digital ice charts from the Canadian Ice Service (1963-2002). Periodic normalization of the iceberg data is necessary because of changes over time in methods of data collection and in the information provided in the database. For 2003, a 0-1 month and a 1-2 month iceberg forecast were prepared each month. Results from this first-year trial of the forecasting system are presented.

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