COMPARISONS OF POLAR WRF AND POLAR MM5 IN ANTARCTICA
has been running in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) (Powers et al. 2003) since late 2005. AMPS is a real-time, experimental mesoscale modeling system tailored for Antarctica and providing high-resolution NWP guidance to the Unites States Antarctic Program as well as number of other...
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
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| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.532.6563 http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/workshops/WS2008/abstracts/P8-17.pdf |
| Summary: | has been running in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) (Powers et al. 2003) since late 2005. AMPS is a real-time, experimental mesoscale modeling system tailored for Antarctica and providing high-resolution NWP guidance to the Unites States Antarctic Program as well as number of other international efforts. Within AMPS the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) (Skamarock et al. 2005) runs alongside a polar-modified version of its predecessor, the MM5 (Grell et al. 1995), although an aim has been to settle on a single model. The MM5 has had a polar-modified version for a number of years (“polar MM5”; see, e.g., Cassano et al. 2001), while polar development of the newer ARW (“polar WRF”) has been much more recent ((Bromwich and Hines 2006). The goal of the development of polar WRF is to improve the model’s capabilities for high-latitude research and forecasting. The testing and evaluation of polar WRF began last year (Powers and Manning 2007), and this version began running in AMPS in August 2007. USAP forecaster experience with polar WRF in AMPS, and its performance relative to polar MM5, for the 2007–2008 field season have both been positive (Space and Naval Warfare Research Center (USAP forecasters), personal communications). A more quantitative analysis is needed, however, to compare polar MM5 (PMM5) and polar WRF (PWRF) in AMPS. This study thus examines both models running in AMPS over Antarctica, with an eye to determining whether PWRF is now comparable to PMM5. Two test periods are considered and forecast error statistics compared. The forecast parameters considered here are of surface conditions: temperature and wind speed. Statistical significance testing is performed to distinguish the differences in forecast skill. |
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