Predicting Glacier Distributions: Local Climate Predictions
The distribution of glacier accumulation areas in the Jotunheim, Norway has been predicted where glacier initiation is expressed as a function of the glacier’s mass balance including gains and losses of snow by wind and avalanches. With the increasing global coverage of local scale digital elevation...
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
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| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.495.6850 http://www.easternsnow.org/proceedings/2003/arrell_and_evans.pdf |
| Summary: | The distribution of glacier accumulation areas in the Jotunheim, Norway has been predicted where glacier initiation is expressed as a function of the glacier’s mass balance including gains and losses of snow by wind and avalanches. With the increasing global coverage of local scale digital elevation data remote and inaccessible areas are now able to be investigated. The model was designed to allow mass balance studies to be performed without the need for infield measurements and only requires a digital elevation model (DEM) and regional climate data to make accurate predictions. A 100 m DEM provided the topographic data and was used in conjunction with regional climate data to create a GIS of local scale high altitude climate variables. These were used in conjunction with predicted global radiation to model snow accumulation. A suite of geomorphologically significant measures was extracted from the DEM to increase the accuracy of these local datasets. Results show that it is essential to include these topographic parameters in climate predictions and reject standard lapse rate models. Best results were found when a seasonal lapse rate model was adopted. The applications of the model allow the reconstruction of past climate and predictions of how glacier systems will react to future climate change scenarios. Providing greater understanding of earth surface systems and their interaction with our changing climate |
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