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ow nloaded from (1960e2004) and from small-mesh trawl surveys (1972e2005) are used to assess the im-pacts of these climate events in the Subarctic Gulf of Alaska. Non-linear regression showed that survey catch composition strongly responded to local climate at lags of 2 and 4 years, providing eviden...
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
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2005
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| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.483.3661 http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/63/8/1386.full.pdf |
| Summary: | ow nloaded from (1960e2004) and from small-mesh trawl surveys (1972e2005) are used to assess the im-pacts of these climate events in the Subarctic Gulf of Alaska. Non-linear regression showed that survey catch composition strongly responded to local climate at lags of 2 and 4 years, providing evidence of rapid ecological response to climate change in the system. A sequen-tial regime shift detection method identified rapid change in local climate, and in survey and commercial catches following the well-documented regime shift to a positive state of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1976/1977. However, the analysis failed to detect the 1998/1999 regime shift in local climate, or in survey or commercial catches. This result is consistent with the view that the 1998/1999 climate regime shift did not represent a rever-sion to a negative PDO state. Local temperature increased and local sea level pressure de-creased in the Gulf of Alaska during the years 2001e2005, consistent with anthropogenic warming and recent spatial reorganization in Arctic climate. There was no evidence of com-munity reorganization following this climate event. Further observation will be required to evaluate the persistence of this new climate pattern, and the nature of community reaction to it. |
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