| Summary: | n After signifi cant real growth in National Health Service (NHS) funding this century (averaging nearly 7 per cent per year in England up to 2010/11), future prospects look far from rosy. n As ever policy choices have to be made over public spending. But the consequences of the current fi nancial crisis on the state of the public fi nances have meant that making these will require diffi cult trade-offs. n This paper analyses the consequences for the NHS, other spending departments and taxation of three possible funding futures for the English NHS from 2011/12 to 2016/17: – ‘tepid ’ (annual real increases of 2 per cent for the fi rst three years, increasing to 3 per cent for the fi nal three years) – ‘cold ’ (zero real change, which is the lowest level of funding compatible with a pledge made by the Conservative Party) – ‘arctic ’ (annual real reductions of 2 per cent for the fi rst three years, falling to 1 per cent for the fi nal three years). Implications for other spending departments n Over the next spending review period – 2011/12–2013/14 – the budget across all spending departments, including the NHS, could reduce in real terms by an average of 2.3 per cent per year. However, if the NHS were to be protected to a greater or lesser degree, other departments could face greater cuts. n For example, if the NHS were to receive real cuts of 2 per cent per year, other departments could need their budgets to be cut by an average of around 2.5 per cent. No real rise in NHS funding (the cold scenario) would imply other departmental cuts averaging 3.4 per cent; and real rises of around 2 per cent for the NHS could imply real cuts in other departments averaging 4.5 per cent. n Estimating the impact on other departments beyond 2013/14 is made more diffi cult as the 2009 Budget did not contain projections for total public spending beyond this date. However, under an assumption of no further tax-raising measures or cuts to benefi ts or tax credits, our assessment is for real reductions averaging around 1.0 per cent per ...
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