Building a Microsimulation Model for Crime in Sweden: Issues and Applications
: Social scientists have developed numerous theoretical and empirical models of crime. However, dynamic regional microsimulation models to forecast crime or to simulate the effect of social welfare, labour, and law enforcement policies are not currently available. This paper outlines a proposal for...
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| Format: | Text |
| Language: | English |
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| Online Access: | http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.42.4193 http://www.ac.cc.md.us/~terryr/crime/crimemic.pdf |
| Summary: | : Social scientists have developed numerous theoretical and empirical models of crime. However, dynamic regional microsimulation models to forecast crime or to simulate the effect of social welfare, labour, and law enforcement policies are not currently available. This paper outlines a proposal for developing a special crime module which would be linked to an existing dynamic spatial microsimulation model called SVERIGE (System for Visualising Economic and Regional Influences Governing the Environment). It describes how a unique geographically descriptive micro database called TOPSWING (Total Population of Sweden, Individual and Geographical database) housed at the Spatial Modelling Centre in Kiruna, Sweden, might be used to generate input data for developing estimates of individual propensities to commit imprisonable offences. It also describes how equations in such a module might be specified and how they could be linked with other economic and demographic variables in the microsimul. |
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