Numerical modeling of spatial permafrost dynamics in Alaska

The Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory model (GIPL) simulates soil temperature dynamics and the depth of seasonal freezing and thawing by solving 1D non-linear heat equation with phase change numerically. In this model the process of soil freezing/thawing is occurring in accordance with the...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Sergei Marchenko, Vladimir Romanovsky, Gennady Tipenko
Other Authors: The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: 2008
Subjects:
Active Layer Thickness
Ground Temperature
Numerical Modeling
Thawing Permafrost
Active layer thickness
Brooks Range
permafrost
Alaska
Online Access:http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.419.9404
http://www.lter.uaf.edu/pdf/1308_Marchenko_Romanovsky_2008.pdf
Description
Summary:The Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory model (GIPL) simulates soil temperature dynamics and the depth of seasonal freezing and thawing by solving 1D non-linear heat equation with phase change numerically. In this model the process of soil freezing/thawing is occurring in accordance with the unfrozen water content curve and soil thermal properties, which are specific for each soil layer and for each geographical location. At the present stage of development, the GIPL 2.0 model is combined with ArcGIS to facilitate preparation of input parameters and visualization of simulated results in a form of digital maps. The future climate scenario was derived from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT-2D climate model output for the 21 st century. This climate scenario was used as a driving force in GIPL model. Initial results of calculations show that by the end of the current century the widespread permafrost degradation could begin everywhere in Alaska southward from the Brooks Range.

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