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7 considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), 8 peak (August-October or ‘ASO’) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main 9 development region (‘MDR’: 6-18°N, 20-60°W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation 10 (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC c...
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ftciteseerx:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.408.3962 2023-05-15T17:33:26+02:00 Click Here for Full Article Thomas A. Sabbatelli Michael E. Mann The Pennsylvania State University CiteSeerX Archives application/pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.3962 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07inpress.pdf en eng http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.3962 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07inpress.pdf Metadata may be used without restrictions as long as the oai identifier remains attached to it. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07inpress.pdf 25 Tropical Cyclones (TCs) [e.g Gray 1984]. The primary text ftciteseerx 2016-01-08T03:09:46Z 7 considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), 8 peak (August-October or ‘ASO’) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main 9 development region (‘MDR’: 6-18°N, 20-60°W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation 10 (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC counts on interannual and longer 11 timescales. The unconditional distribution of TC counts is observed to be inconsistent 12 with the null hypothesis of a fixed rate random (Poisson) process. However, using two 13 different methods, we find that conditioning TC counts on just two climate state variables, 14 ENSO and MDR SST, can account for much or all of the apparent non-random variations 15 over time in TC counts. Based on statistical models of annual Atlantic TC counts 16 developed in this study and current forecasts of climate state variables, we predicted 17 m = 15 ± 4 total named storms for the 2007 season. 18 Citation: Sabbatelli, T. A., and M. E. Mann (2007), The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence 19 rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, XXXXXX, doi:10.1029/2007JD008385. 21 Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Unknown |
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25 Tropical Cyclones (TCs) [e.g Gray 1984]. The primary |
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25 Tropical Cyclones (TCs) [e.g Gray 1984]. The primary Thomas A. Sabbatelli Michael E. Mann Click Here for Full Article |
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25 Tropical Cyclones (TCs) [e.g Gray 1984]. The primary |
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7 considering three climate state variables—the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), 8 peak (August-October or ‘ASO’) Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) over the main 9 development region (‘MDR’: 6-18°N, 20-60°W), and the North Atlantic Oscillation 10 (NAO)—thought to influence variations in annual TC counts on interannual and longer 11 timescales. The unconditional distribution of TC counts is observed to be inconsistent 12 with the null hypothesis of a fixed rate random (Poisson) process. However, using two 13 different methods, we find that conditioning TC counts on just two climate state variables, 14 ENSO and MDR SST, can account for much or all of the apparent non-random variations 15 over time in TC counts. Based on statistical models of annual Atlantic TC counts 16 developed in this study and current forecasts of climate state variables, we predicted 17 m = 15 ± 4 total named storms for the 2007 season. 18 Citation: Sabbatelli, T. A., and M. E. Mann (2007), The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence 19 rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, XXXXXX, doi:10.1029/2007JD008385. 21 |
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Thomas A. Sabbatelli Michael E. Mann |
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Thomas A. Sabbatelli Michael E. Mann |
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Thomas A. Sabbatelli |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.3962 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07inpress.pdf |
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North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
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North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07inpress.pdf |
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http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.408.3962 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/SabbatelliMannJGR07inpress.pdf |
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